Estimating Mid Bands Spectrum Needs for the 2025-30 Timeframe
This report, written by Coleago for the GSMA, provides a global analysis of spectrum needs to meet the 5G vision of providing ubiquitous high-speed wireless mobile connectivity and a user experience to match that of fixed networks.
Related insights
The vision for 5G revolves around ubiquitous high-speed wireless mobile connectivity, aligning with IMT-2020 requirements. The challenge lies in achieving a user experience akin to fixed networks, necessitating 100 Mbit/s downlink, 50 Mbit/s uplink, and supporting 1 million connections per km². To understand this challenge, we have modelled 5G mobile traffic demand and supply in 36 densely populated cities worldwide.
Key Insights:
Crucial Spectrum Needs
The analysis underscores the criticality of additional mid-band spectrum for 5G’s evolution. Without it, achieving guaranteed user data rates across urban areas, supporting smart city initiatives, and addressing climate change through technology becomes economically unfeasible.
Infrastructure Investments
Alongside spectrum allocation, substantial investments in advanced infrastructure like higher order MIMO base stations, small cells, and high bands are imperative to deliver the targeted user data rates.
Population Density Impact
Cities with densities exceeding 8,000 per km²—representing over 1.64 billion people globally—stand as focal points for the significance of mid-band spectrum allocation. This allocation would directly impact around 626 cities, spanning diverse ITU Regional groups.
Quantifying Spectrum Needs
The estimated mid band spectrum demand for 2025-2030 averages at 2,020 MHz across the examined cities. This allocation is vital for meeting the evolving communication and smart city needs.
Beyond Urban Areas
Spectrum allocation below 8,000 per km² yields benefits like reduced site density, faster broadband speeds, and cost efficiencies, and impacts both retail prices and overall power consumption.
Rural Connectivity Impact
For regions reliant on wireless connectivity, additional mid-band spectrum enables delivering fibre-like 5G Fixed Wireless Access (FWA) to rural areas. This helps achieve rural broadband connectivity goals and significantly reduces costs compared to traditional fibre infrastructure.
Urban vs. Rural Infrastructure
Countries with robust urban broadband infrastructure benefit from 5G FWA solutions, lowering costs to connect remaining unconnected rural towns/villages. For instance, in Europe, it offers a substantial cost reduction compared to fibre-to-the-home, ensuring sustainable high-speed connectivity.
Transport Route Capacities
Major transport routes, including highways and railways, demand substantial capacity to cater to connected vehicles and smart road use cases, emphasising the necessity of 5G infrastructure beyond populated areas.
In summary
The allocation of additional mid band spectrum emerges as a crucial enabler for fulfilling 5G’s promises, especially in densely populated urban areas. Moreover, its impact extends beyond urban centres, influencing rural connectivity, cost efficiencies, and smart infrastructure development on a global scale.
Other insights
The Case for Strategic Spectrum Renewal
As spectrum licences approach their expiry date, a strategic approach to spectrum renewal is crucial. Traditional presumption of renewal in favour of incumbents may no longer serve the industry’s needs. Instead, a more strategic approach to renewal can optimise spectrum assignments and improve spectral efficiency by up to 40%.
Best Practice Spectrum Management
The principles of best practice spectrum management are well established and their implementation can enhance the socio-economic value of spectrum and how much operators are prepared to pay to acquire new spectrum. Whilst most regulators in developed markets have adopted best practice, the same cannot be said for developing markets. Coleago recently studied the regulatory environments in 16 African markets and recorded the extent to which best practice had been adopted.
Learning From Best Practice Spectrum Management in Botswana
The Botswana Communications Regulatory Authority conducted a review of its spectrum management strategy to align with international best practice. The Authority was advised by Coleago and in this paper, Project Director Graham Friend highlights the lessons to be learned for other regulators in developing markets.
The End of Telecoms History? – Not Quite!
At the European 5G conference, Stefan Zehle highlighted that differences in mobile data usage across countries result from variations in price and network availability. While European policymakers celebrate 89% 5G coverage, gaps in both outdoor and indoor connectivity limit usage. William Webb’s prediction that data traffic will plateau at 20 GB per user per month by 2027 seems unlikely, given that top users already exceed 100 GB. To fully realise 5G’s potential, policymakers must address these coverage issues in a cost-effective manner.
Insights from a Strategic Spectrum Review
The mobile industry has accumulated a fragmented spectrum portfolio, consisting of various frequency bands that are sub-optimally allocated for modern technologies like 4G and 5G. As operators transition from legacy technologies such as 2G and 3G to newer, bandwidth-intensive solutions, the need for contiguous spectrum blocks has become critical.
The End of Telecoms History? Not Really
In his book The End of Telecoms History, William Webb uses extrapolation of mobile data usage growth curves to claim that mobile data user requirements are nearly met
and that we have all we need
. He predicts mobile data usage to plateau at around 15-20 Gbytes/user/month
. Webb claims that no further investment in 5G capacity is needed and that the only remaining problem is ubiquity, notably in-building coverage. This article provides evidence that, while the author makes some good points, his analysis with regards to mobile data usage is flawed and hence the conclusions he draws are quite wrong.
